Britain`s ambassador to the European Union, Sir Ivan Rogers, has said it could take up to 10 years to negotiate a trade deal between Britain and the EU after Brexit – and even then it could be rejected by national parliaments. The determinants of the longer period, from launch to implementation – provide additional insight. This period has lengthened over time and countries with high trade shares in the United States have longer implementation delays. One explanation is that, as the rules have become more complex, ratification and implementation of agreements takes longer, especially when there is a lot of traffic at stake. In addition, there appears to be no implementation of learning, and in recent years, as trade has become more controversial, the agreements have been subject to further scrutiny. However, the data show no relationship with congressional control. The PIIE estimates that a monarch reduces the time required for negotiations by about half. Agreements signed in a U.S. presidential year take about 40% less time than agreements reached at other times. And more than half of the U.S. agreements were signed in election years. To date, more than 20 of these existing agreements, covering 50 countries or territories, have been shaken up with the exception of the I.V. and will begin on 1 January 2021.
Based on 2018 figures, this represents about 8% of total trade in the UK. But it is clear that new agreements with some countries will not be ready in time. The UK and THE EU are negotiating a trade deal that is expected to start on 1 January 2021, when the new UK-EU relationship will begin. It is one of the largest trade agreements in the world and covers 40% of the world economy, so it is not surprising that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has lasted longer than other U.S. free trade agreements. Talks between the EU and the UK are under way to reach a post-Brexit free trade agreement before the end of the year. The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) deciphered the figures on how long it took the United States to conclude 20 bilateral trade agreements. The procedures for ratifying EU trade agreements are much stricter than the ratification of the Article 50 withdrawal agreement, which requires only a qualified majority in the Council and a majority in the European Parliament. If the UK were to act in accordance with WTO rules, tariffs would apply to most of the products that British companies send to the EU.
This would make British goods more expensive and more difficult to sell in Europe. The UK could also do so for EU products if it so wishes. Now that Britain has voted on Brexit, the British government must renegotiate agreements with the EU – and with the bloc`s trading partners, including the US.